Archive for the ‘Science’ Category

Why It’s So Easy to Demagogue Global Warming

Friday, December 11th, 2009

Global warming is a very difficult topic to understand and depends on a huge array of very sensitive measurements and considerations. The ease at which the global arming denialists can stir up doubt and thereby delay needed changes (which is their only objective) is obvious when looked at through this lens. Here’s an excellent writeup, with some advice on what to do in the face of all this wankery:

Well, here’s my solution to this problem: this is why we have peer review. Average guys with websites can do a lot of amazing things. One thing they cannot do is reveal statistical manipulation in climate-change studies that require a PhD in a related field to understand. So for the time being, my response to any and all further “smoking gun” claims begins with: show me the peer-reviewed journal article demonstrating the error here. Otherwise, you’re a crank and this is not a story.

Anthropogenic Global Warming

Thursday, December 10th, 2009

There a certain brand of global warming denialism out there that says, while Earth may be warming, there’s no proof it’s man made and therefore we shouldn’t worry about it. This argument is pretty weak because we know two things that are undisputed:

So it is inescapable that man’s activity (CO2 emissions) is causing warming. The only question is quantifying how much a given concentration of CO2 will affect global mean temperatures. This latter question is open to debate though most evidence is alarming. The former question is settled science, and suggesting that it is not is dishonest.

Global Warming Denialists

Tuesday, December 8th, 2009

As in many pseudosciences, there are two categories: the (sometimes willfully) stupid, and the outright deceitful. Here’re a couple of good examples:

In the first category we have Viscount Monckton of Brenchley, who has delusions of grandeur. He really is a Viscount, but he also claims to be a member of the House of Lords (he isn’t) and to have won a share in the Nobel Peace Prize (he didn’t). Monckton has a degree in classics and no training or experience in science or mathematics but he churns out papers full of equations (which he misinterprets) and graphs (which are wrong) that purport to show that global warming isn’t happening. Monckton recently gave a speech with 2 million viewings on youtube where he declared that that Copenhagen treaty will institute a COMMUNIST WORLD GOVERNMENT. In short, Monckton is a crank.

Now, if Monckton’s pet theory was, say, that the moon was made of cheese or the sun was made of iron nobody would pay any attention to him. But because his theory involves global warming denial, he is now chief policy advisor at a think tank called the Science and Public Policy Institute and touted as an expert on climate science. Hoggan describes a whole gaggle of such think tanks, all with fancy titles and funded by the fossil fuel industry. None of them produce science to be published in peer-reviewed journals but rather opinions than can be published in opeds or quotes for journalists to balance their stories and match a quote from a scientist at a research institute about their data shows global warming is a problem with a quote from a “policy analyst” from a think tank saying that no it isn’t.

Which brings us to the second category of person described — someone who knows when he is lying. An example of this sort of person is Steve Milloy. While Monckton wil say things that are outrageously false and outright crazy, Milloy is much more careful. Instead of telling everybody that cigarette smoke is good for you, he will raise lots of plausible sounding (but poorly founded) objections to studies that show that it is harmful. Milloy would raise these objections at his website junkscience.com, which pretended to be a place devoted to debunking bad science, but actually was devoted to debunking the notion that cigarette smoke was harmful. You won’t be surprised to learn that Milloy was secretly funded by tobacco companies

Hitchens and D’Souza

Sunday, December 6th, 2009

I never tire of seeing Christopher Hitchens eviscerate his less prepared debate opponents. Here’s an older one, a bout with Dinesh D’Souza, whose primary claim to fame is having written a book blaming social liberals for the 9-11 attacks. D’Souza does a much better job than most of his ilk but near the end is reduced to claiming that atheists need to “take responsibility for” the mass murders of Nazi Germany, Maoism, and Russian communism. It’s a despicable display, and it’s one of the reasons why this debate was, in the end, less satisfying for me than some others I’ve seen Hitchens engage in — D’Souza, even though he is no doubt an earnest believer, was being quite dishonest in his performance that night.

Some of his very odd pronouncements:

  • People wouldn’t (and indeed, didn’t) have any sense of morals without Christianity. Moreover, evolution has nothing to do with morality; we humans are moral blank slates in the absence of religion. [I was a little skeptical that he really meant to put it this way, but he repeats the assertion over and over again.]
  • Because there are physical laws (gravity, relativity, etc.), there must be an enforcer of those laws, i.e. god. In other words, physics is metaphysical.
  • The Salem Witch Trials, the Spanish Inquisition, etc. didn’t really kill that many people anyway.
  • The speed of light might be variable; science is just assuming that it is constant. Therefore, miracles are possible. (huh?)
  • Albert Einstein was a theist. [Note: he was actually a deist, an altogether different thing.]
  • Atheism is flawed because it doesn’t explain the origin of the universe, among other things; religion, which has assertions about these things is therefore superior.
  • Proponents of specific religious claims (even those that defy common experience or even physical laws) bear no greater burden of proof than those who disbelieve these claims.
  • Atheists reject Christian morality because they aren’t moral enough.

D’Souza’s riffs on cosmology and physics are particularly pathetic.

The irony is the D’Souza is very well spoken and from all outward appearances a rational individual. That the same person presented such a glib, dishonest, and ultimately contemptible display was quite jarring indeed.

Update: Here’s a debate between D’Souza and Daniel Dennett, a professor at Tufts University. I was, alas, being too generous of D’Souza in some of my commentary above. The guy is a real sleaze (smart though). He even invokes Pascal’s Wager — you’ve got to be kidding me.

Whew, Good Thing There’s No Global Warming Problem After All!

Saturday, December 5th, 2009

Here’s Proof!!

Oh wait, you mean all the raving on Fox News and Rush Limbaugh and right-wing conspiracy sites has actually been bullshit? Really? Shocking!

Just another example of people who have no idea what they are talking about criticizing those who do.

The thing that bothers me most about this is that there are no doubt some people at Fox News and elsewhere who realize that this is all bullshit, and who understand that the effects of several degrees centigrade rise in global temperatures will have profound, unknown, and dangerous consequences, and that the longer we wait the more dangerous it will be. And the more they lie about the problem, the harder it will be for us to summon the collective will to make significant changes. But they persist in spite of this, all for better ratings. Bastards.

Update:
(more…)

What we actually know about global warming

Thursday, December 3rd, 2009

Lots of dishonesty and denialism out there. The last page of this Popular Mechanics article does a good job summarizing what we do know. This, by the way is not just an academic exercise, though you might not believe that based on idiots in our congress. A sample of the article:

The atmosphere is well mixed on a year-long time scale. It is not necessary to cover the globe with sensors to determine how the average atmospheric CO2 concentration is changing over periods of years. All data show that atmospheric CO2 is going up. This increase is very strongly correlated with the historical increase in human CO2 emissions. Ice-core gas samples show that the current concentration in CO2 is unprecedented for at least 500,000 years (and probably many millions of years, based on other data). There have been many other periods in the glacial record when atmospheric CO2 went up without any help from humans, but they show a much slower rate of increase of CO2, and much lower maximum concentrations.

For these reasons, and based on carbon isotope data, it is all but certain that the present, unprecedented rise in CO2 is due mainly to human output. But one cannot rule out with complete certainty other factors, for example, global warming itself, that could also be significantly contributing to the atmospheric CO2 increase.

(more…)